Murken Analysis: Initial Thoughts and Observations From First Set of Area Girls Basketball Pairings
Ryan Murken
Your Prep Sports
Regional pairings are set, opponents and potential postseason opponents are down on paper and the paths to the state tournament in Des Moines are coming into focus for girls basketball teams.
Now comes the fun part.
Not the actual games, those won’t tip off for more than a week for area teams, instead comes the fun of analyzing and discussing what lies ahead.
Three Your Prep Sports area teams learned their regional roads when the Iowa Girls High School Athletic Union released postseason pairings for Classes 1A, 2A and 3A.
Your Prep Sports will have more coverage leading up to and throughout the postseason as area teams chase state tournament berths but I start by offering up a few of my initial thoughts and observations about the regional pairings.
Familiar Unfamiliarity of West Branch
The initial reaction to the regional draw for third-ranked West Branch from many was likely the lack of another ranked team in the Region 7 bracket.
Unranked Van Buren (13-5) is the two seed opposite of top-seeded West Branch (13-1) in a Region 7 field that currently features just one other team in 10-6 Mediapolis with double digit wins.
Van Buren was No. 15 last week but dropped out of rankings released Thursday following a 25-point loss at WACO (7-11) on Monday.
The draw itself is a good one for West Branch for several reasons but what stood out immediately was how similar it is to the path the Bears took to the state tournament last season.
West Branch beat Wapello and Van Buren by a combined 60 points in its final two regional game last season and could see both again this year.
The Bears beat Van Buren 58-38 in a regional final last season so having the Warriors as a two seed alone makes the regional an attractive one for West Branch.
There are other factors I like about the draw for West Branch, namely the lack of River Valley Conference opponents.
As often has been the case for West Branch in past season the Bears have been assigned to RVC-heavy regionals. This year that is Region 6 where the entire bottom half of the field is from the RVC headed by sixth-ranked Bellevue (16-1) which is the second seed.
Sometimes unfamiliarity can be a good thing and for West Branch I believe it is largely because of the intensity and speed the Bears bring on defense takes some time getting used to and both potential semifinal opponents, Pella Christian (8-9) and Pekin (8-9) are both currently under .500.
Then there is this – West Branch hasn’t lost a regional game to a non-RVC opponent since falling to North Linn in a regional semifinal 54-50 in 2013.
I’ve been bullish on the Bears as a 2A title contender since the beginning and clearly am not alone considering West Branch opened the season atop the 2A rankings and their regional pairing had only heightened my expectation for a return trip to state.
A Big Second Chance For Solon
Last season was a breakthrough of sorts for Solon as the Spartans showed tremendous improvement going from three wins in year one under head coach Jamie Smith to nine wins and earning a home game in its Class 3A regional opener.
Smith praised the progress that hosting an opening-round regional game showed his program had made in a short time.
Then the Spartans promptly lost that home regional quarterfinal 64-55 to Vinton-Shellsburg.
This season No. 12 Solon (13-5) has taken a huge step forward establishing itself as a top-15 team and earning the second seed in Region 7 and home court advantage to a regional final.
Solon will host Tipton (5-11) in the Region 7 opener on February 13 with an opportunity to atone for last season’s disappointing finish.
How far has Solon come in the past two years?
Ask yourself this question – If told two seasons ago that Solon was paired with perennial power Center Point-Urbana in a regional final what types of odds would you give Solon?
That’s the scenario the Spartans are in with eighth-ranked Center Point-Urbana (13-4) the Region 7 top seed.
The 3-18 season in Smith’s first year ended with a 68-32 regional quarterfinal loss to Center Point-Urbana.
Solon opened this season with a 27-point win over Center Point-Urbana in the only meeting between the two teams.
That win came without CPU all-stater Ryley Goebel, who leads the Stormin’ Pointers in scoring (19.1), rebounding (8.8), assists (2.5) and steals (3.5) on the floor and a rematch with a full-strength Center Point-Urbana squad is an exciting possibility.
Don’t pencil in that rematch yet, both teams have potentially intriguing semifinal matchups which is part of what I like about the draw for Solon.
Center Point-Urbana gets the winner of Davenport Assumption (5-8) and Maquoketa (9-10) while Solon would face the Monticello (13-5)/Camanche (3-14) winner.
Despite the records I like the semifinal matchup better for Solon than Center Point-Urbana.
Don’t take Davenport Assumption lightly. The Knights have lost three times to 4A fourth-ranked Central DeWitt and twice to 5A Pleasant Valley (8-6), have another loss to 5A No. 13 Davenport North and own a win over 4A No. 11 Cedar Rapids Xavier.
Regina’s Long Road Ahead
There is a lot to like about the draw for Regina which landed on the bottom half of the Class 2A, Region 7 bracket opposite West Branch.
One thing that isn’t ideal for the Regals is three consecutive games away from home which is what Regina (8-5) would face on the road to state starting with a trip to Mediapolis (10-6) for a quarterfinal on February 16.
The actual draw for the Regals is a good one in my opinion.
Mediapolis is a tradition-rich program that is 51-11 over the past three seasons combined but is a winnable opening-round game especially if the Regals can slow 5-foot-10 junior center Hallie Mohr who is averaging 23.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game.
Another Southeast Iowa Super Conference foe in Van Buren (13-5) would be the likely semifinal opponent if Regina could advance.
It has been an unusual season at times for Regina with Covid pauses and a 6-0 start followed by a five-game skid.
Regina has showed the ability to compete with top-level teams in a two-point loss to No. 11 Cascade, a 10-point loss to Monticello and a loss to third-ranked West Branch in which the Regals trailed by four in the final quarter.
The Regals have won back-to-back games after the loss to West Branch to get back on track so they are heating up but a potential concern is Regina has five games scheduled in a seven-day span from February 5 to 11 leading up to its postseason opener on the 16th.
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